Performance Tracking
Results by season. Picks are graded once games are played.
Season Performance
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Bettable Games Win Rate
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Bettable Record (W-L-P)
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Overall ATS Win Rate
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Overall Record (W-L-P)
Performance by Betting Tier
| Tier | Record | Win Rate | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
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Weekly Performance
| Week | ATS Record | Win Rate | Bettable Win Rate | Strong | Good Value | Lean | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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About Performance Tracking
ATS (Against the Spread): Our pick vs the Vegas spread
Breakeven: 52.4% win rate (accounting for -110 juice)
Target: 55%+ ATS win rate for profitability
Betting Tiers: A single cutoff on how far the model is from the market. STRONG is a gap of 8 points or more, GOOD VALUE is 5 to 8, and anything under 5 is PASS — below that the model won 50.3% in walk-forward testing, which loses to the vig. NO PICK means the inputs were too thin to price the game.