Performance Tracking

Results by season. Picks are graded once games are played.

Season Performance

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Bettable Games Win Rate

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Bettable Record (W-L-P)

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Overall ATS Win Rate

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Overall Record (W-L-P)

Note: Bettable win rate covers STRONG and GOOD VALUE. Below a 5-point edge the model won 50.3% historically, which loses to the vig, so those are marked PASS.
Performance by Betting Tier
Tier Record Win Rate Total Games
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Weekly Performance
Week ATS Record Win Rate Bettable Win Rate Strong Good Value Lean Pass
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About Performance Tracking

ATS (Against the Spread): Our pick vs the Vegas spread
Breakeven: 52.4% win rate (accounting for -110 juice)
Target: 55%+ ATS win rate for profitability


Betting Tiers: A single cutoff on how far the model is from the market. STRONG is a gap of 8 points or more, GOOD VALUE is 5 to 8, and anything under 5 is PASS — below that the model won 50.3% in walk-forward testing, which loses to the vig. NO PICK means the inputs were too thin to price the game.